The poll of 934 likely Democratic caucus-goers and 867 likely Republican caucus-goers was taken Wednesday through Saturday and has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points for the Democrats and 3.4 percentage points for the Republicans.
Clinton, a New York senator, led Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois 31 percent to 27 percent, with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards a close third at 24 percent and no other Democratic contender registering in double-digits.
Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, held a statistically insignificant one-point edge over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 29 percent to 28 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain was a distant third with 11 percent.
Three Republicans, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, registered 8 percent in the poll
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It is very important to focus on the MARGIN OF ERROR statistic. Democratic margin of error is 3.3 and Republican margin is 3.4.
The MARGIN OF ERROR figure is completely wrong when it comes to GENDER or RACIAL questions and the last time I looked, there were two extremely viable candidates who fell into those categories.
I've heard MARGIN OF ERROR figures can change from 3 percent to as high as 30 percent when it comes to those categories.
again if you weren't paying attention.....THOSE TWO CATEGORIES are
GENDER AND RACE
When the political alchemists add RELIGION to the mix....I'm not sure that anyone has a real handle on what will happen in the upcoming Caucasus and Primaries.
The people who conduct the polls claim the MARGIN OF ERROR is never more than 3 to 4 percent.....BUT THEY KNOW THAT'S NOT TRUE WHEN IT COMES TO
GENDER AND RACE
But if they admitted to extreme MARGIN OF ERRORS, then nobody would be paying them millions of dollars to conduct polls. And candidates would not have pollsters on their staff's....and pollsters would be obsolete.....
I'VE GOT NEWS FOR EVERYBODY INVOLVED.
POLLSTERS ARE OBSOLETE WHEN IT COMES TO ASKING SOMEONE IF THEY WOULD VOTE FOR A WOMAN OR A MINORITY IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.
The common sense part of this is that gender bias and racial discrimination are issues that people do not want to share with anyone....if indeed there is a personal gender bias and racial issues.
LYING TO A POLLSTER MIGHT BE THE EASIEST LIE THAT ANYONE WILL EVER TELL BECAUSE THE PERSON LYING DOESN'T THINK ANYONE HAS A RIGHT TO KNOW WHAT THEY REALLY THINK.......ESPECIALLY IF THE THOUGHTS ARE...
NEGATIVE IN THE DIRECTION OF A CERTAIN TYPE OF PERSON THAT FALLS WITHIN THE TWO CATEGORIES
RACE AND GENDER
I'M SAYING THAT RELIGION NEEDS TO BE ADDED TO THIS EQUATION WHEN DETERMINING MARGIN OF ERROR, WHEN CONDUCTING A POLITICAL POLL.
AND IF RELIGION IS ADDED THEN I'M TELLING YOU RIGHT NOW, ON DECEMBER 30 2007, THAT WE KNOW WHO THE TOP CANDIDATES ARE IN EACH RACE, BUT
WE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.......
THERE WILL BE SOME AMAZING SURPRISES AND PEOPLE WILL WONDER EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED.
I'm not saying that Ralph Nader will be a write in candidate....I'm just saying that the results will be surprising.....especially to those pollsters who claim that MARGIN OF ERROR is in the 3 to 4 percent range.
AND BY THE WAY...
MARGIN OF ERROR FOR DEMOCRATS IS 3.3
MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REPUBLICANS IS 3.4
What exactly does that mean?
It implies that Republicans are less reliable than Democrats....
DUH!
GENDER, RACE AND RELIGION.....WOW
It doesn't get anymore exciting than this.......
WELL, that's what I told the pollster the other day, but I could be lying by as much as 9.3%
And sometimes
I actually lie
in the 87.6% range....
which is offset by the fact that sometimes I don't lie at all.
That's what you get when you experience MIND JAZZ.
It's up to you to ask yourself what you really believe and do your beliefs have anything to do with ideas, issues and possible political achievements.....or is something physical involved in your perception of how you might vote?
I do know one thing for sure........
It's none of my business how you vote
It only becomes my business if you don't vote...because then I am accountable and you are a non-entity in the political process.
I'M NOT SURE HOW MANY PEOPLE I ACTUALLY KNOW WHO DON'T VOTE.
BUT I CAN PROMISE YOU THAT THE MARGIN OF ERROR FOR THAT QUESTION COULD BE IN THE 80 PERCENT RANGE.
Polls are pretty good things if an election doesn't include women, African Americans, Hispanics, ministers, actors, old people or midgets ( sorry Dennis).
MARGIN OR ERROR might be in the 25% range on this article but who knows.
Michael Timothy McAlevey
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